The Post-Pandemic Future Takes Flight
After an excruciating year, the global aviation industry is innovating a more sustainable, super-charged future.
By Xische Editorial, June 9, 2021
Source: Boyko Pictures/Envato
You don’t need a degree in rocket science to appreciate the devastating effects that the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the global aviation industry. As the world entered lockdown of varying degrees in 2020, airplane travel ground to a halt. Even as the Western countries begin opening up thanks to impressive vaccination efforts and falling numbers of Covid cases, the aviation sector is still licking its wounds. The pressure point going forward hinges on which airlines innovate new approaches to travel and try to get back to business as usual.
Let’s review some numbers before going forward. McKinsey estimates that the aviation industry had revenues totaling $328bn in 2020, which is only 40 percent of 2019’s revenue. Based on the sluggish reopening and the continuing harm that Covid-19 can still have on the global economy, analysts suggest that air traffic will only return to 2019 in about five years.
The way we travel is going to change. With so many people working from home, business trips requiring air travel will likely diminish for the foreseeable future. This is a significant hit for airlines that generate enormous amounts of revenue from business class travelers. In the place of business travelers, analysts suggest that leisure travel will comprise the bulk of new passengers for the foreseeable future. With announcements like Europe opening up to American travelers that have been vaccinated, the desire of many for a real vacation will surely pump new revenue into the aviation sector.
Sounds like standard airline economics so far, right? Where does the role of innovation come into the fold? As with many things, an innovative approach to the sector starts small and ends rather large (as you will see). Airlines have used the pandemic downturn to focus on better efficiency. That means fewer resources wasted, shifts to more sustainable (and cheaper) biofuels, and greater passenger comfort onboard the aircraft.
Consider the steps Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways have taken since the start of the pandemic. At the beginning of the pandemic, Etihad took advantage of having most of its fleet on the ground to complete the most extensive aircraft maintenance program in its history. All of its 96 passenger aircraft were “surgically and clinically refreshed, so they looked like they were fresh out of the hangar.”
The company also used the demand in cargo space to transform its fleet. According to the company’s website, Etihad “joined the Hope Consortium, an Abu Dhabi-led coalition formed to facilitate the distribution of Covid vaccines across the world in November 2020. The consortium has a complete end-to-end supply chain solution covering demand planning, sourcing, and world-class facilities for transporting temperature-sensitive cargo at ultra-cold conditions up to -80⁰.”
One of the significant innovations that were kickstarted during the pandemic is supersonic travel. That’s right; airlines are gearing up to bring a new generation of supersonic planes to your local airport. United Airlines, the US-based carrier, announced last week that it would purchase 15 Boom Overturn supersonic aircraft by the end of this decade. The airline has an additional option to buy another 35 of these incredible planes. The planes are expected to roll out in 2025, fly in 2026, and start commercial flights by 2029.
The Overture is an exceptional aircraft and is expected to be the first large commercial aircraft to be net-zero carbon from day one, optimized to run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Sustainable aviation biofuels can be derived from sources like non-edible natural oils and agricultural wastes instead of crude oil. Supersonic travel at speeds of Mach 1.7 will cut flight time by nearly half for several destinations. Like in the days of Concorde, New York to London will be little more than a three-hour trip, while Tokyo to San Francisco will be just six hours.
From low-cost airlines focused on leisure travel to supersonic flights connecting the world’s major cities in a fraction of the time, the post-pandemic aviation landscape will be wholly different from the one that existed in 2019. And that’s a good thing. It’s critical for the overall health and innovation of the sector to be confronted with dramatic changes and find ways to meet them. This is especially true considering the shift away from crude oil fueling aviation in the next several decades. Covid-19 was thus a dress rehearsal for much more significant shifts in aviation that will change the sector altogether. Here’s to a bright post-pandemic future.
